California’s 11th District
U.S. House · CA-11
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 79.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-11 | 89.6% | 10.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5%+35.1 | 44.2%−33.8 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
3 polls
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 12.0% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
Pelosi, Nancy · Democrat
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Scott Wiener · Advanced to the general election | 40.7% | 95,816 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Connie Chan · Advanced to the general election | 29.7% | 69,899 votes |
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 62.1 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 79.2 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated