Maine

U.S. Senate · Maine

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 58% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.5 points.

Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 64%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 50.3%

Troy Jackson
Republican 49.3%

Susan Collins, incumbent

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
Maine	50.3%	49.3%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	47.3%+3.0	48.7%+0.6	4.0%−3.6

Simple average of the 100 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

48 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Suffolk University	8–Oct 11, 2026	500	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 47	See the poll
The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School Of Policy And Government	Sep 30, 2026 – Oct 5, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 46	See the poll
Marist University	1–Oct 4, 2026	1,505	registered voters	Democrat 51 Republican 47	See the poll
Wedgewood Polls	Sep 27, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026	400	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 48	See the poll
Yougov CBS News	Sep 23, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026	1,136	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 50	See the poll
Trafalgar Group	Sep 29, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026	1,091	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 46	See the poll
Co/Efficient	28–Sep 30, 2026	1,240	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 46	See the poll
Maine People'S Resource Center	25–Sep 29, 2026	684	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 47	See the poll
Insideradvantage	22–Sep 23, 2026	1,200	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 46	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University Portland Press Herald	15–Sep 22, 2026	619	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 46	See the poll
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research AARP	20–Sep 22, 2026	982	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 47	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	17–Sep 21, 2026	1,301	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 47	See the poll
Quantus Insights	14–Sep 15, 2026	621	likely voters	Republican 48 Democrat 47	See the poll
University Of Massachusetts Lowell Center For Public Opinion/Yougov	Aug 28, 2026 – Sep 14, 2026	650	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 43	See the poll
Yougov	2–Sep 8, 2026	1,335	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 44	See the poll
Cnn Ssrs	Aug 31, 2026 – Sep 6, 2026	880	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 45	See the poll
Abacus Data	26–Aug 28, 2026	327	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 42	See the poll
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News	6–Aug 10, 2026	1,000	registered voters	Democrat 48 Republican 46	See the poll
Hart Research Associates Senate Majority PAC	Jul 27, 2026 – Aug 1, 2026	802	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 45	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	15–Jul 20, 2026	1,178	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 46	See the poll
Public Policy Polling	July 7, 2026	785	registered voters	Republican 47 Democrat 42	See the poll
Tavern Research	3–Jul 6, 2026	1,074	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 48	See the poll
Wedgewood Polls	4–Jul 6, 2026	405	likely voters	Republican 50 Democrat 46	See the poll
Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research Fox News	23–Jun 27, 2026	1,003	registered voters	Republican 50 Democrat 47	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University Portland Press Herald	19–Jun 26, 2026	608	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 47	See the poll
Wick 2Way	11–Jun 14, 2026	1,008	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 45	See the poll
Quantus Insights	9–Jun 11, 2026	870	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 45	See the poll
Tavern Research	5–Jun 8, 2026	1,642	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 49	See the poll
Public Policy Polling	2–Jun 3, 2026	670	registered voters	Democrat 49 Republican 45	See the poll
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates Pine Tree Results	1–Jun 3, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 46 Republican 46	See the poll
University Of Massachusetts Lowell Center For Public Opinion/Yougov	13–May 26, 2026	650	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 43	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	21–May 25, 2026	1,250	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 42	See the poll
Pan Atlantic Sms Group	8–May 18, 2026	827	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 41	See the poll
Echelon Insights NetChoice	3–Apr 9, 2026	378	likely voters	Democrat 51 Republican 45	See the poll
Maine People'S Resource Center	20–Mar 31, 2026	1,167	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 39	See the poll
Emerson College	21–Mar 23, 2026	1,075	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 41	See the poll
Onmessage Inc. Insurance Watchdog Coalition	3–Mar 8, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 44 Republican 42	See the poll
Quantus Insights	3–Mar 5, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 42	See the poll
Pan Atlantic Sms Group	Feb 13, 2026 – Mar 2, 2026	810	likely voters	Democrat 44 Republican 40	See the poll
University Of New Hampshire	12–Feb 16, 2026	1,105	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 38	See the poll
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates Pine Tree Results	20–Jan 24, 2026	800	likely voters	Republican 45 Democrat 44	See the poll
Workbench Strategy	11–Dec 16, 2025	900	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 50	See the poll
Pan Atlantic Sms Group	Nov 29, 2025 – Dec 7, 2025	820	likely voters	Democrat 43 Republican 42	See the poll
Cygnal Political Plymouth Union Public Advocacy	10–Nov 11, 2025	600	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 41	See the poll
Maine People'S Resource Center	26–Oct 29, 2025	783	registered voters	Democrat 45 Republican 41	See the poll
Zenith Research More Perfect Union	7–Oct 10, 2025	501	likely voters	Democrat 38 Republican 38	See the poll
Public Policy Polling	8–Sep 9, 2025	642	registered voters	Democrat 44 Republican 35	See the poll
Upswing Research	21–Mar 25, 2025	600	likely voters	Republican 43 Democrat 42	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current member

Susan Collins · Republican

Primary results

Held June 9, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Troy Jackson	Totals pending
Republican primary	Susan Collins	100.0%	126,398 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Susan Collins
source
Other Challenger

Evans, David Alan

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Other Challenger

Rench, Phillip

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Democrat Open seat

Troy Jackson
source

Other races in the region

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Alaska Republican, toss-up
Alabama Republican, safe seat
Arkansas Republican, safe seat
Colorado Democrat, safe seat
Delaware Democrat, safe seat
Georgia Democrat, competitive

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 15, 2026