Montana’s 1st District

U.S. House · MT-1

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 58% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.0 points.

Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 51%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 50.2%

Aaron Flint
Democrat 48.7%

Sam Forstag
Other 1.1%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
MT-1	50.2%	48.7%	1.1%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+5.9	54.5%−5.8	1.2%−0.1

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

8 polls, 12 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
American Pulse Research & Polling NonStop Local Scenario 1	19–Sep 24, 2026	314	likely voters	Generic Republican (R) 46 Generic Democrat (D) 37 Generic Candidate (OTH) 10	See the poll
American Pulse Research & Polling NonStop Local Scenario 2	19–Sep 24, 2026	314	likely voters	Aaron Flint (R) 46 Sam Forstag (D) 45 Nick Sheedy (Lib.) 5	See the poll
Impact Research	20–Sep 23, 2026	500	likely voters	Sam Forstag (D) 47 Aaron Flint (R) 44 Nick Sheedy (Lib.) 2	See the poll
Public Policy Polling The Bench Scenario 1	9–Sep 10, 2026	536	registered voters	Sam Forstag (D) 45 Aaron Flint (R) 43	See the poll
Public Policy Polling The Bench Scenario 2	9–Sep 10, 2026	536	registered voters	Generic Republican (R) 48 Generic Democrat (D) 44	See the poll
Rutgers-Eagleton Montana Free Press	Aug 27, 2026 – Sep 7, 2026	375	registered voters	Aaron Flint (R) 42 Sam Forstag (D) 41 Nick Sheedy (Lib.) 5	See the poll
Impact Research	22–Jun 25, 2026	500	likely voters	Aaron Flint (R) 44 Sam Forstag (D) 44 Tim Sheehy (R) 5	See the poll
Upswing Research 314 Action Scenario 1	Apr 30, 2026 – May 5, 2026	401	likely voters	Aaron Flint (R) 47 Matt Rains (D) 43	See the poll
Upswing Research 314 Action Scenario 2	Apr 30, 2026 – May 5, 2026	401	likely voters	Aaron Flint (R) 48 Sam Forstag (D) 43	See the poll
Peak Insights Leadership in Action Scenario 1	12–Jan 15, 2026	400	likely voters	Ryan Zinke (R) 48 Sam Forstag (D) 38	See the poll
Peak Insights Leadership in Action Scenario 2	12–Jan 15, 2026	400	likely voters	Ryan Zinke (R) 47 Ryan Busse (D) 41	See the poll
Tulchin Research No Surrender Fund	22–Nov 25, 2025	424	likely voters	Ryan Busse (D) 47 Ryan Zinke (R) 43	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	3.5% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Zinke, Ryan K · Republican

Primary results

Held June 2, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Sam Forstag	37.3%	26,276 votes
Republican primary	Aaron Flint	50.1%	41,170 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Sam Forstag
source
Republican Open seat

Aaron Flint
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 7.7 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 6.0 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

MT-2 Republican, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 15, 2026