Montana’s 2nd District
U.S. House · MT-2
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 22.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MT-2 | 60.2% | 37.6% | 2.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+16.0 | 54.5%−16.9 | 1.2%+1.0 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 3.5% (± 0.1) |
|---|
Current member
Troy Downing · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Brian Miller | 55.7% | 24,033 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Troy Downing | 100.0% | 82,088 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 32.0 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 22.7 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated