Pennsylvania’s 7th District
U.S. House · PA-7
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 84% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.2 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 34%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| PA-7 | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5%−1.0 | 44.2%+2.3 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
2 polls
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 15.5% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
Ryan Mackenzie · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Bob Brooks | 41.0% | 28,232 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Ryan Mackenzie | 100.0% | 35,048 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 1.0 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 8.2 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated