Pennsylvania’s 4th District

U.S. House · PA-4

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 28.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican
PA-4	64.4%	35.6%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+9.9	44.2%−8.6

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	4.7% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Madeleine Dean · Democrat

Held May 19, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Madeleine Dean	100.0%	88,286 votes
Republican primary	Aurora Stuski	100.0%	35,116 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Democrats won by 18.1 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 28.8 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.