Pennsylvania’s 2nd District

U.S. House · PA-2

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 52.7 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican
PA-2	76.4%	23.6%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+21.9	44.2%−20.6

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	21.1% (± 0.5)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Brendan F Boyle · Democrat

Held May 19, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Brendan F Boyle	100.0%	53,043 votes
Republican primary	Jessica Arriaga	100.0%	6,328 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Democrats won by 42.9 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 52.7 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.