Mississauga—Erin Mills
Provincial riding · Ontario · Greater Toronto (905)
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Ontario Liberals a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 45%.
Compared with the average
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississauga—Erin Mills | 47.7% | 42.5% | 6.4% | 2.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.5%+15.2 | 41.6%+0.9 | 20.3%−13.9 | 3.0%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Sheref Sabawy · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 0.1 points, with 41.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the Ontario Liberals ahead by 5.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheref Sabawy Elected | PC | 16,694 | 44.3 |
| Qasir Dar | OLP | 16,671 | 44.2 |
| Mubashir Rizvi | NDP | 2,090 | 5.5 |
| Adriane Franklin | GP | 1,080 | 2.9 |
| Michael Bayer | OTH | 751 | 2.0 |
| Michael Matulewicz | IND | 309 | 0.8 |
| Sajid Hussain | IND | 122 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Mississauga Centre PC, toss-up
- Mississauga—Streetsville OLP, toss-up
- Oakville OLP, toss-up
- Mississauga—Malton PC, competitive
- Mississauga—Lakeshore OLP, toss-up
- Brampton South PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated