Oakville
Provincial riding · Ontario · Greater Toronto (905)
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Ontario Liberals a 76% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.0 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakville | 47.4% | 46.1% | 4.8% | 1.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.5%+15.0 | 41.6%+4.5 | 20.3%−15.6 | 3.0%−2.0 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Stephen Crawford · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 3.9 points, with 49.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the Ontario Liberals ahead by 2.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Crawford Elected | PC | 22,754 | 48.0 |
| Alison Gohel | OLP | 20,906 | 44.1 |
| Diane Downey | NDP | 1,851 | 3.9 |
| Bruno Sousa | GP | 1,235 | 2.6 |
| Shereen Di Vittorio | OTH | 556 | 1.2 |
| Sandor Kornay | OTH | 93 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Oakville North—Burlington PC, toss-up
- Mississauga—Erin Mills OLP, toss-up
- Mississauga Centre PC, toss-up
- Mississauga—Streetsville OLP, toss-up
- Mississauga—Lakeshore OLP, toss-up
- Burlington OLP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated