Oakville North—Burlington
Provincial riding · Ontario · Greater Toronto (905)
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 77%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oakville North—Burlington | 47.8% | 44.2% | 6.2% | 1.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+6.2 | 32.5%+11.8 | 20.3%−14.1 | 3.0%−2.0 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Effie J. Triantafilopoulos · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 8.8 points, with 46.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 3.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Effie Triantafilopoulos Elected | PC | 25,580 | 49.7 |
| Kaniz Mouli | OLP | 21,053 | 40.9 |
| Caleb Smolenaars | NDP | 2,769 | 5.4 |
| Ali Hosny | GP | 1,411 | 2.7 |
| Charles Wroblewski | OTH | 659 | 1.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Oakville OLP, toss-up
- Mississauga—Erin Mills OLP, toss-up
- Burlington OLP, toss-up
- Milton PC, toss-up
- Mississauga—Streetsville OLP, toss-up
- Mississauga Centre PC, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated