Burlington
Provincial riding · Ontario · Greater Toronto (905)
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Ontario Liberals a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 45%.
Compared with the average
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burlington | 46.5% | 41.4% | 8.9% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.5%+14.0 | 41.6%−0.3 | 20.3%−11.4 | 3.0%−1.2 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Natalie Pierre · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 0.1 points, with 53.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the Ontario Liberals ahead by 5.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natalie Pierre Elected | PC | 24,118 | 43.1 |
| Andrea Grebenc | OLP | 24,079 | 43.1 |
| Megan Beauchemin | NDP | 4,487 | 8.0 |
| Kyle Hutton | GP | 1,913 | 3.4 |
| James Chilli Chillingworth | OTH | 727 | 1.3 |
| David Crombie | OTH | 582 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hamilton Centre NDP, safe seat
- Hamilton Mountain OLP, toss-up
- Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas NDP, safe seat
- Flamborough—Glanbrook PC, safe seat
- Hamilton East—Stoney Creek PC, toss-up
- Oakville North—Burlington PC, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated