Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
Provincial riding · Ontario · Greater Toronto (905)
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 48%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton East—Stoney Creek | 40.3% | 35.1% | 18.5% | 3.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%−1.3 | 32.5%+2.6 | 20.3%−1.9 | 2.6%+0.7 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Neil Lumsden · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 10.5 points, with 43.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 5.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Lumsden Elected | PC | 16,401 | 42.1 |
| Heino Doessing | OLP | 12,323 | 31.6 |
| Zaigham Butt | NDP | 6,862 | 17.6 |
| Pascale Marchand | GP | 2,049 | 5.3 |
| Heather Curnew | OTH | 595 | 1.5 |
| Wieslawa Derlatka | OTH | 530 | 1.4 |
| Drew Garvie | OTH | 223 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hamilton Mountain OLP, toss-up
- Hamilton Centre NDP, safe seat
- Burlington OLP, toss-up
- Flamborough—Glanbrook PC, safe seat
- Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas NDP, safe seat
- Oakville North—Burlington PC, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated