Hamilton Mountain
Provincial riding · Ontario · Greater Toronto (905)
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Ontario Liberals a 52% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.6 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton Mountain | 34.4% | 34.4% | 26.9% | 2.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%−7.2 | 32.5%+1.9 | 20.3%+6.6 | 3.0%−0.7 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Monica Ciriello · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 5.2 points, with 46.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the Ontario Liberals ahead by 1.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monica Ciriello Elected | PC | 13,948 | 36.2 |
| Dawn Danko | OLP | 11,933 | 30.9 |
| Kojo Damptey | NDP | 10,037 | 26.0 |
| Joshua Czerniga | GP | 1,544 | 4.0 |
| Layla Marie-Angela Protopapa | OTH | 392 | 1.0 |
| Dan Preston | OTH | 278 | 0.7 |
| Ejaz Butt | IND | 267 | 0.7 |
| Bing Wong | OTH | 178 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hamilton Centre NDP, safe seat
- Flamborough—Glanbrook PC, safe seat
- Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas NDP, safe seat
- Hamilton East—Stoney Creek PC, toss-up
- Burlington OLP, toss-up
- Oakville North—Burlington PC, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated