Flamborough—Glanbrook
Provincial riding · Ontario · Greater Toronto (905)
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamborough—Glanbrook | 47.6% | 34.9% | 13.5% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+6.0 | 32.5%+2.4 | 20.3%−6.8 | 2.6%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Donna Skelly · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 18.0 points, with 48.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 12.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donna Skelly Elected | PC | 23,790 | 49.4 |
| Joshua Bell | OLP | 15,135 | 31.4 |
| Lilly Noble | NDP | 6,095 | 12.7 |
| Janet Errygers | GP | 1,923 | 4.0 |
| Kristen Halfpenny | OTH | 1,233 | 2.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas NDP, safe seat
- Hamilton Mountain OLP, toss-up
- Hamilton Centre NDP, safe seat
- Burlington OLP, toss-up
- Hamilton East—Stoney Creek PC, toss-up
- Milton PC, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated