Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas
Provincial riding · Ontario · Greater Toronto (905)
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | PC | OLP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas | 39.7% | 31.3% | 26.2% | 1.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3%+19.4 | 41.6%−10.3 | 32.5%−6.3 | 2.6%−1.1 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Sandy Shaw · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 5.8 points, with 52.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 8.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sandy Shaw Elected | NDP | 19,684 | 38.9 |
| John Demik | PC | 16,766 | 33.1 |
| Julia Brown | OLP | 11,543 | 22.8 |
| Guy Bisson | GP | 1,747 | 3.4 |
| Lee Weiss Vassor | OTH | 587 | 1.2 |
| Spencer Rocchi | OTH | 229 | 0.5 |
| Nori Smith | OTH | 81 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Flamborough—Glanbrook PC, safe seat
- Hamilton Centre NDP, safe seat
- Hamilton Mountain OLP, toss-up
- Burlington OLP, toss-up
- Hamilton East—Stoney Creek PC, toss-up
- Milton PC, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated