Polling trend and our model estimate
Each dot is one published poll; the diamond is the Vote-Scope model estimate with its 95% interval.
Polls · Ontario · Legislative Assembly
Ontario voting intention
PC, OLP, NDP, Greens: every published provincial poll on Ontario voting intention, pollster by pollster.
Vote-Scope aggregates them and projects Queen’s Park. Below: the trend against the model estimate, then the full table.
47 polls · 10 pollsters · Most recent fieldwork: September 17, 2026
PC NDP OLP GP
| Pollster | Field dates | Sample | Pop. | Topline | Source | Image |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liaison | September 17, 2026 | 1,600 | Adults | PC 40 OLP 34 NDP 21 GP 2 | — | |
| Liaison Liaison Strategies | 23–Aug 24 | 1,500 | Adults | PC 39 OLP 35 NDP 20 GP 2 | link | |
| Abacus Data | 20–Aug 24 | 1,518 | — | PC 42 OLP 31 NDP 17 GP 4 | link | |
| Pallas | August 9, 2026 | 1,105 | Adults | PC 37 OLP 29 NDP 26 GP 3 | — | |
| Abacus Data Toronto Star | 23–Jul 29 | 1,000 | Adults | PC 40 OLP 32 NDP 21 GP 3 | link | |
| Liaison | 20–Jul 21 | 1,000 | Adults | OLP 38 PC 33 NDP 24 GP 2 | link | |
| EKOS Research Associates Fair Vote Canada | 9–Jul 16 | 1,512 | Adults | PC 32 NDP 28 OLP 26 GP 5 | link | |
| Abacus Data | June 15, 2026 | 2,182 | Adults | PC 41 OLP 32 NDP 19 GP 5 | — | |
| Liaison | June 14, 2026 | 1,000 | Adults | OLP 38 PC 35 NDP 22 GP 4 | — | |
| Abacus Data | May 17, 2026 | 1,017 | Adults | PC 41 OLP 31 NDP 17 GP 5 | — | |
| Liaison | May 16, 2026 | 1,000 | Adults | PC 37 OLP 37 NDP 20 GP 4 | — | |
| Léger Leger | 8–May 11 | 1,003 | Adults | PC 39 OLP 34 NDP 17 GP 6 | link | |
| Mainstreet Research Mainstreet Research | 5–May 7 | 910 | Adults | PC 35 OLP 31 NDP 24 GP 6 | link | |
| Campaign Research Ontario PC Party internal Party-commissioned poll | Apr 29 – May 1 | 3,000 | Adults | PC 39 OLP 29 NDP 20 GP 7 | — | |
| Liaison | 25–Apr 26 | 1,000 | Adults | OLP 38 PC 36 NDP 20 GP 4 | — | |
| Pallas | April 22, 2026 | 1,007 | — | PC 37 OLP 32 NDP 24 GP 6 | — | |
| Abacus Data | April 19, 2026 | 1,000 | Adults | PC 37 OLP 36 NDP 17 GP 5 | — | |
| Pallas The Trillium | April 8, 2026 | 1,084 | — | PC 40 OLP 31 NDP 22 GP 6 | — | |
| Abacus Data | April 4, 2026 | 2,185 | Adults | PC 39 OLP 31 NDP 21 GP 5 | — | |
| Innovative Research | March 29, 2026 | 616 | Adults | PC 48 OLP 30 NDP 16 GP 5 | — | |
| Liaison | March 28, 2026 | 1,000 | Adults | PC 39 OLP 36 NDP 18 GP 5 | — | |
| Ipsos | March 11, 2026 | 801 | Adults | PC 42 OLP 35 NDP 18 GP 3 | — | |
| Abacus Data | March 8, 2026 | 1,000 | Adults | PC 44 OLP 32 NDP 16 GP 5 | — | |
| Liaison | February 21, 2026 | 1,000 | Adults | PC 40 OLP 36 NDP 17 GP 5 | — | |
| Abacus Data | February 8, 2026 | 1,001 | Adults | PC 44 OLP 30 NDP 16 GP 6 | — | |
| Pallas | January 24, 2026 | 1,015 | Adults | PC 43 OLP 30 NDP 18 GP 5 | — | |
| Liaison | January 20, 2026 | 1,000 | Adults | PC 42 OLP 35 NDP 17 GP 3 | — | |
| Abacus Data | January 11, 2026 | 1,006 | Adults | PC 48 OLP 22 NDP 19 GP 6 | — | |
| Liaison | December 6, 2025 | 1,000 | Adults | PC 44 OLP 35 NDP 16 GP 3 | — | |
| Angus Reid | November 28, 2025 | 853 | Adults | PC 41 OLP 28 NDP 23 GP 4 | — | |
| Pallas | November 15, 2025 | 1,077 | Adults | PC 45 OLP 28 NDP 18 GP 6 | — | |
| Abacus Data | November 6, 2025 | 1,000 | Adults | PC 51 OLP 23 NDP 19 GP 3 | — | |
| Léger | October 16, 2025 | 1,052 | Adults | PC 44 OLP 32 NDP 13 GP 7 | — | |
| Liaison | October 15, 2025 | 800 | Adults | PC 47 OLP 33 NDP 15 GP 3 | — | |
| Abacus Data | October 12, 2025 | 1,000 | Adults | PC 51 OLP 25 NDP 15 GP 5 | — | |
| Abacus Data | September 15, 2025 | 1,021 | Adults | PC 52 OLP 24 NDP 12 GP 6 | — | |
| Mainstreet Research | September 13, 2025 | 958 | Adults | PC 48 OLP 29 NDP 14 GP 3 | — | |
| Pallas | September 4, 2025 | 1,026 | Adults | PC 45 OLP 26 NDP 17 GP 7 | — | |
| Angus Reid | September 1, 2025 | 935 | Adults | PC 45 OLP 25 NDP 22 GP 4 | — | |
| Abacus Data | August 17, 2025 | 1,037 | Adults | PC 53 OLP 27 NDP 12 GP 5 | — | |
| Liaison | August 8, 2025 | 800 | Adults | PC 44 OLP 35 NDP 15 GP 3 | — | |
| Abacus Data | July 13, 2025 | 1,000 | Adults | PC 50 OLP 28 NDP 13 GP 6 | — | |
| Pallas | June 29, 2025 | 1,080 | Adults | PC 43 OLP 29 NDP 21 GP 6 | — | |
| Mainstreet Research | June 25, 2025 | 923 | Adults | PC 41 OLP 32 NDP 17 GP 3 | — | |
| Abacus Data | June 4, 2025 | 1,000 | Adults | PC 49 OLP 28 NDP 14 GP 5 | — | |
| Léger | May 24, 2025 | 1,025 | Adults | PC 45 OLP 32 NDP 15 GP 5 | — | |
| Liaison | May 7, 2025 | 1,000 | Adults | PC 46 OLP 36 NDP 13 GP 2 | — |
National and big-regional polls only. District-level polls appear on each district’s forecast page.