Etobicoke North
Provincial riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Etobicoke North | 56.4% | 32.7% | 9.0% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+14.7 | 32.5%+0.2 | 20.3%−11.3 | 3.0%−1.3 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Doug Ford · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 31.0 points, with 34.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 23.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Ford Elected | PC | 15,426 | 59.4 |
| Julie Lutete | OLP | 7,369 | 28.4 |
| Bryan Blair | NDP | 2,067 | 8.0 |
| Chelsey Edwards | GP | 526 | 2.0 |
| Andy D'Andrea | OTH | 405 | 1.6 |
| John Gardner | OTH | 177 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Humber River—Black Creek NDP, toss-up
- Etobicoke Centre OLP, toss-up
- York South—Weston OLP, competitive
- Vaughan—Woodbridge PC, safe seat
- Mississauga East—Cooksville OLP, toss-up
- Etobicoke—Lakeshore OLP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated