York South—Weston
Provincial riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Ontario Liberals a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 17%.
Compared with the average
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| York South—Weston | 39.0% | 32.0% | 26.8% | 1.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.5%+6.5 | 41.6%−9.6 | 20.3%+6.5 | 3.0%−1.5 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Mohamed Firin · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 0.6 points, with 38.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the Ontario Liberals ahead by 7.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Firin Elected | PC | 11,142 | 35.2 |
| Daniel Di Giorgio | OLP | 10,940 | 34.6 |
| Faisal Hassan | NDP | 8,101 | 25.6 |
| Lilian Barrera | GP | 844 | 2.7 |
| Victor Ehikwe | OTH | 396 | 1.3 |
| K. Ann Thomas | IND | 213 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Parkdale—High Park NDP, safe seat
- Davenport NDP, safe seat
- Humber River—Black Creek NDP, toss-up
- York Centre PC, safe seat
- Eglinton—Lawrence OLP, competitive
- Etobicoke Centre OLP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated