Eglinton—Lawrence
Provincial riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Ontario Liberals a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 15%.
Compared with the average
| OLP | PC | GP | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eglinton—Lawrence | 52.1% | 45.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.5%+19.6 | 41.6%+3.3 | 2.6%−1.1 | 20.3%−19.2 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Michelle Cooper · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 0.4 points, with 46.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Ontario Liberals ahead by 7.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle Cooper Elected | PC | 19,556 | 48.5 |
| Vince Gasparro | OLP | 19,389 | 48.1 |
| Leah Tysoe | GP | 1,390 | 3.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Toronto—St. Paul's OLP, safe seat
- York Centre PC, safe seat
- Willowdale OLP, toss-up
- Davenport NDP, safe seat
- Don Valley West OLP, safe seat
- University—Rosedale NDP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated