York Centre
Provincial riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| York Centre | 51.0% | 40.1% | 6.6% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+9.4 | 32.5%+7.6 | 20.3%−13.7 | 3.0%−1.0 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Michael S. Kerzner · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 18.4 points, with 39.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 11.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Kerzner Elected | PC | 16,416 | 54.1 |
| Sam Nestico | OLP | 10,823 | 35.6 |
| Natalie Van Halteren | NDP | 1,700 | 5.6 |
| Courtney Martin | GP | 658 | 2.2 |
| Johnny Blythe | OTH | 309 | 1.0 |
| Lionel Poizner | OTH | 212 | 0.7 |
| Jeffrey Anisman | OTH | 140 | 0.5 |
| Parviz Isgandarov | OTH | 111 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Eglinton—Lawrence OLP, competitive
- Willowdale OLP, toss-up
- Thornhill PC, safe seat
- Humber River—Black Creek NDP, toss-up
- York South—Weston OLP, competitive
- Toronto—St. Paul's OLP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated