University—Rosedale
Provincial riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | OLP | PC | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University—Rosedale | 46.7% | 35.0% | 16.5% | 1.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3%+26.4 | 32.5%+2.5 | 41.6%−25.1 | 2.6%−1.4 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Jessica Bell · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 14.8 points, with 44.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 11.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jessica Bell Elected | NDP | 17,912 | 45.5 |
| Pam Jeffery | OLP | 12,098 | 30.7 |
| Sydney Pothakos | PC | 7,829 | 19.9 |
| Ignacio Mongrell | GP | 1,227 | 3.1 |
| Dylan Harris | OTH | 299 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Toronto Centre NDP, toss-up
- Spadina—Fort York NDP, safe seat
- Toronto—St. Paul's OLP, safe seat
- Toronto—Danforth NDP, safe seat
- Don Valley West OLP, safe seat
- Davenport NDP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated