Davenport
Provincial riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 33.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | OLP | PC | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davenport | 58.5% | 24.8% | 14.5% | 1.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3%+38.2 | 32.5%−7.6 | 41.6%−27.1 | 2.6%−1.5 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Marit Stiles · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 36.5 points, with 46.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 33.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marit Stiles Elected | NDP | 22,143 | 57.1 |
| Paulo Pereira | OLP | 7,983 | 20.6 |
| Nick Pavlov | PC | 6,937 | 17.9 |
| Randi Ramdeen | GP | 1,184 | 3.1 |
| Dave Mckee | OTH | 556 | 1.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Parkdale—High Park NDP, safe seat
- Toronto—St. Paul's OLP, safe seat
- Eglinton—Lawrence OLP, competitive
- York South—Weston OLP, competitive
- Spadina—Fort York NDP, safe seat
- University—Rosedale NDP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated