Vaughan—Woodbridge
Provincial riding · Ontario · Greater Toronto (905)
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 33.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vaughan—Woodbridge | 63.2% | 29.9% | 5.0% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+21.5 | 32.5%−2.6 | 20.3%−15.4 | 3.0%−1.2 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Michael A. Tibollo · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 38.6 points, with 42.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 33.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Tibollo Elected | PC | 23,243 | 65.1 |
| Hamza Ansari | OLP | 9,482 | 26.6 |
| Elif Genc | NDP | 1,479 | 4.1 |
| Philip Piluris | GP | 628 | 1.8 |
| Pasquale Chiarizia | OTH | 509 | 1.4 |
| Mario Greco | OTH | 345 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Etobicoke North PC, safe seat
- Brampton East PC, safe seat
- Humber River—Black Creek NDP, toss-up
- King—Vaughan PC, safe seat
- Thornhill PC, safe seat
- York Centre PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated