King—Vaughan
Provincial riding · Ontario · Greater Toronto (905)
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 30.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| King—Vaughan | 62.3% | 31.4% | 4.7% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+20.6 | 32.5%−1.1 | 20.3%−15.6 | 3.0%−1.6 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Stephen Lecce · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 36.2 points, with 39.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 30.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Lecce Elected | PC | 28,527 | 64.2 |
| Gillian Vivona | OLP | 12,453 | 28.0 |
| Rick Morelli | NDP | 1,714 | 3.9 |
| Ann Raney | GP | 934 | 2.1 |
| Christopher Bressi | OTH | 569 | 1.3 |
| Maria Morgis | OTH | 256 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Vaughan—Woodbridge PC, safe seat
- Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill PC, safe seat
- Thornhill PC, safe seat
- Richmond Hill PC, safe seat
- Newmarket—Aurora PC, toss-up
- Humber River—Black Creek NDP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated