Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
Provincial riding · Ontario · Greater Toronto (905)
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill | 55.2% | 37.1% | 6.4% | 1.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+13.5 | 32.5%+4.7 | 20.3%−13.9 | 3.0%−1.8 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Michael Parsa · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 23.3 points, with 38.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 18.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Parsa Elected | PC | 19,670 | 57.2 |
| Jason Cherniak | OLP | 11,645 | 33.9 |
| Naila Saeed | NDP | 1,929 | 5.6 |
| Ikram Kahn | GP | 610 | 1.8 |
| Rosaria Wiseman | OTH | 540 | 1.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Richmond Hill PC, safe seat
- Newmarket—Aurora PC, toss-up
- King—Vaughan PC, safe seat
- Thornhill PC, safe seat
- Markham—Unionville PC, safe seat
- Markham—Stouffville PC, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated