Markham—Unionville
Provincial riding · Ontario · Greater Toronto (905)
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 25.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markham—Unionville | 59.3% | 34.3% | 4.8% | 1.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+17.6 | 32.5%+1.8 | 20.3%−15.5 | 3.0%−1.8 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Billy Pang · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 30.3 points, with 35.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 25.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Pang Elected | PC | 20,113 | 61.2 |
| Jagbir Dosanjh | OLP | 10,158 | 30.9 |
| Sameer Qureshi | NDP | 1,298 | 4.0 |
| Chris Madsen | GP | 772 | 2.4 |
| Nick Boudreau | OTH | 545 | 1.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Markham—Stouffville PC, toss-up
- Markham—Thornhill PC, safe seat
- Scarborough—Agincourt OLP, toss-up
- Scarborough North PC, safe seat
- Richmond Hill PC, safe seat
- Don Valley North OLP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated