Markham—Thornhill
Provincial riding · Ontario · Greater Toronto (905)
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markham—Thornhill | 51.3% | 42.7% | 5.2% | 0.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+9.7 | 32.5%+10.2 | 20.3%−15.1 | 2.6%−2.1 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Logan Kanapathi · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 13.9 points, with 37.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 8.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Kanapathi Elected | PC | 14,287 | 53.6 |
| Nirmala Armstrong | OLP | 10,580 | 39.7 |
| Paul Sahbaz | NDP | 1,176 | 4.4 |
| Shane O'Brien | GP | 623 | 2.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Scarborough—Agincourt OLP, toss-up
- Markham—Unionville PC, safe seat
- Don Valley North OLP, safe seat
- Scarborough North PC, safe seat
- Scarborough Centre OLP, competitive
- Markham—Stouffville PC, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated