Scarborough—Agincourt
Provincial riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Ontario Liberals a 54% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.7 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarborough—Agincourt | 46.3% | 46.2% | 6.0% | 1.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.5%+13.8 | 41.6%+4.6 | 20.3%−14.3 | 3.0%−1.8 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Aris Babikian · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 7.5 points, with 37.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the Ontario Liberals ahead by 1.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aris Babikian Elected | PC | 13,468 | 49.4 |
| Peter Yuen | OLP | 11,430 | 41.9 |
| Francesca Policarpio | NDP | 1,368 | 5.0 |
| Stephanie Leblanc | GP | 556 | 2.0 |
| Johan Yogaretnam | OTH | 249 | 0.9 |
| Donahue Morgan | OTH | 200 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Markham—Thornhill PC, safe seat
- Scarborough Centre OLP, competitive
- Scarborough North PC, safe seat
- Don Valley North OLP, safe seat
- Don Valley East OLP, safe seat
- Scarborough Southwest NDP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated