Don Valley East
Provincial riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Ontario Liberals a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 32.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| OLP | PC | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don Valley East | 61.0% | 28.8% | 8.7% | 0.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.5%+28.5 | 41.6%−12.8 | 20.3%−11.7 | 2.6%−1.7 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Adil Shamji · OLP
Previous election (2025)
The Ontario Liberals won by 24.5 points, with 40.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Ontario Liberals ahead by 32.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adil Shamji Elected | OLP | 15,465 | 56.7 |
| Roger Gingerich | PC | 8,784 | 32.2 |
| Frank Chu | NDP | 2,094 | 7.7 |
| Joshua Miersch | GP | 778 | 2.9 |
| Krasimir Penkov | OTH | 180 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Don Valley West OLP, safe seat
- Beaches—East York OLP, safe seat
- Toronto—Danforth NDP, safe seat
- Scarborough Centre OLP, competitive
- Don Valley North OLP, safe seat
- Scarborough Southwest NDP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated