Scarborough Southwest
Provincial riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | PC | OLP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarborough Southwest | 43.9% | 27.2% | 27.0% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3%+23.6 | 41.6%−14.4 | 32.5%−5.4 | 2.6%−1.0 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 12.3 points, with 41.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 16.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Doly Begum Elected | NDP | 14,557 | 42.9 |
| Addie Daramola | PC | 10,400 | 30.6 |
| Qadira Jackson | OLP | 7,786 | 22.9 |
| Mark Bekkering | GP | 1,194 | 3.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Scarborough Centre OLP, competitive
- Beaches—East York OLP, safe seat
- Don Valley East OLP, safe seat
- Scarborough—Guildwood OLP, safe seat
- Toronto—Danforth NDP, safe seat
- Scarborough—Agincourt OLP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated