Scarborough—Guildwood
Provincial riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Ontario Liberals a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarborough—Guildwood | 55.6% | 34.6% | 7.7% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.5%+23.1 | 41.6%−7.0 | 20.3%−12.6 | 3.0%−1.4 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Andrea Hazell · OLP
Previous election (2025)
The Ontario Liberals won by 13.3 points, with 38.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the Ontario Liberals ahead by 21.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Hazell Elected | OLP | 13,813 | 51.0 |
| Jude Aloysius | PC | 10,224 | 37.8 |
| Christian Keay | NDP | 1,811 | 6.7 |
| Tara Mcmahon | GP | 661 | 2.4 |
| Anthony Internicola | OTH | 298 | 1.1 |
| Kevin Clarke | IND | 169 | 0.6 |
| Kingsley Cato | IND | 98 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Scarborough North PC, safe seat
- Scarborough—Rouge Park PC, toss-up
- Scarborough Centre OLP, competitive
- Scarborough Southwest NDP, safe seat
- Scarborough—Agincourt OLP, toss-up
- Beaches—East York OLP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated