Scarborough—Rouge Park
Provincial riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a 74% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.0 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 95%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarborough—Rouge Park | 46.0% | 44.6% | 8.1% | 1.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+4.4 | 32.5%+12.1 | 20.3%−12.2 | 3.0%−2.0 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Vijay Thanigasalam · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 8.9 points, with 42.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 2.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vijay Thanigasalam Elected | PC | 16,357 | 49.2 |
| Morris Beckford | OLP | 13,385 | 40.2 |
| Hibah Sidat | NDP | 2,360 | 7.1 |
| Victoria Jewt | GP | 727 | 2.2 |
| Timothy James | OTH | 326 | 1.0 |
| Wai Kiat Tang | OTH | 114 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Scarborough—Guildwood OLP, safe seat
- Scarborough North PC, safe seat
- Scarborough Centre OLP, competitive
- Pickering—Uxbridge PC, toss-up
- Scarborough—Agincourt OLP, toss-up
- Scarborough Southwest NDP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated