Pickering—Uxbridge
Provincial riding · Ontario · Greater Toronto (905)
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 80%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pickering—Uxbridge | 46.3% | 42.9% | 8.3% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+4.6 | 32.5%+10.5 | 20.3%−12.1 | 3.0%−1.3 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Peter Bethlenfalvy · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 8.5 points, with 45.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 3.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Bethlenfalvy Elected | PC | 21,975 | 48.1 |
| Ibrahim Daniyal | OLP | 18,072 | 39.5 |
| Khalid Ahmed | NDP | 3,381 | 7.4 |
| Mini Batra | GP | 1,300 | 2.8 |
| Adrian Nolan | OTH | 411 | 0.9 |
| Victoria Devenport | OTH | 384 | 0.8 |
| Mansoor Qureshi | OTH | 127 | 0.3 |
| Netalia Duboisky | OTH | 73 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Scarborough—Rouge Park PC, toss-up
- Ajax OLP, competitive
- Markham—Stouffville PC, toss-up
- Scarborough North PC, safe seat
- Scarborough—Guildwood OLP, safe seat
- Markham—Unionville PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated