Ajax
Provincial riding · Ontario · Greater Toronto (905)
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Ontario Liberals a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 29%.
Compared with the average
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 48.3% | 42.3% | 7.9% | 1.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.5%+15.8 | 41.6%+0.6 | 20.3%−12.5 | 3.0%−1.7 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Rob Cerjanec · OLP
Previous election (2025)
The Ontario Liberals won by 0.8 points, with 41.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the Ontario Liberals ahead by 6.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Cerjanec Elected | OLP | 18,499 | 45.0 |
| Patrice Barnes | PC | 18,168 | 44.2 |
| Arthur Augustine | NDP | 2,884 | 7.0 |
| Cory Feferman | GP | 866 | 2.1 |
| Chris Rees | OTH | 413 | 1.0 |
| Sarah Qureshi | OTH | 312 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Whitby PC, toss-up
- Pickering—Uxbridge PC, toss-up
- Scarborough—Rouge Park PC, toss-up
- Oshawa NDP, safe seat
- Scarborough—Guildwood OLP, safe seat
- Scarborough North PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated