Whitby
Provincial riding · Ontario · Greater Toronto (905)
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 81%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whitby | 46.3% | 43.0% | 8.8% | 1.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+4.6 | 32.5%+10.5 | 20.3%−11.5 | 3.0%−1.8 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Lorne Coe · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 8.5 points, with 46.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 3.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lorne Coe Elected | PC | 24,803 | 48.1 |
| Roger Gordon | OLP | 20,440 | 39.6 |
| Jamie Nye | NDP | 4,097 | 8.0 |
| Steven Toman | GP | 1,376 | 2.7 |
| Ralph Blank | OTH | 844 | 1.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Oshawa NDP, safe seat
- Ajax OLP, competitive
- Durham PC, safe seat
- Pickering—Uxbridge PC, toss-up
- Scarborough—Rouge Park PC, toss-up
- Scarborough—Guildwood OLP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated