Durham
Provincial riding · Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durham | 47.5% | 32.8% | 16.4% | 2.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+5.9 | 32.5%+0.3 | 20.3%−3.9 | 3.0%−0.2 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Todd J. McCarthy · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 21.1 points, with 44.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 14.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Mccarthy Elected | PC | 26,967 | 50.5 |
| Brad Jakobsen | OLP | 15,701 | 29.4 |
| Chris Borgia | NDP | 7,635 | 14.3 |
| Sanjin Zeco | GP | 1,280 | 2.4 |
| James Leventakis | OTH | 666 | 1.3 |
| Asif Khan | OTH | 635 | 1.2 |
| Sheri Thurston | OTH | 409 | 0.8 |
| Fawad Kiyani | IND | 130 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Oshawa NDP, safe seat
- Whitby PC, toss-up
- Ajax OLP, competitive
- Pickering—Uxbridge PC, toss-up
- Scarborough—Rouge Park PC, toss-up
- Scarborough—Guildwood OLP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated