Oshawa
Provincial riding · Ontario · Greater Toronto (905)
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 11%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | PC | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oshawa | 46.6% | 39.7% | 12.2% | 1.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3%+26.3 | 41.6%−2.0 | 32.5%−20.3 | 3.0%−1.7 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Jennifer K. French · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 4.3 points, with 41.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 7.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer French Elected | NDP | 20,367 | 45.9 |
| Jerry J. Ouellette | PC | 18,442 | 41.5 |
| Viresh Bansal | OLP | 3,891 | 8.8 |
| Nicholas Sirgool | GP | 916 | 2.1 |
| Joe Ingino | OTH | 644 | 1.5 |
| Rahul Padmini Soumian | IND | 142 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Whitby PC, toss-up
- Durham PC, safe seat
- Ajax OLP, competitive
- Pickering—Uxbridge PC, toss-up
- Scarborough—Rouge Park PC, toss-up
- Scarborough—Guildwood OLP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated