Markham—Stouffville
Provincial riding · Ontario · Greater Toronto (905)
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 71%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markham—Stouffville | 48.7% | 44.7% | 5.4% | 0.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+7.0 | 32.5%+12.2 | 20.3%−14.9 | 3.0%−2.2 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Paul Calandra · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 9.2 points, with 43.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 4.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Calandra Elected | PC | 22,757 | 50.6 |
| Kelly Dunn | OLP | 18,624 | 41.4 |
| Gregory Hines | NDP | 2,051 | 4.6 |
| Myles O'Brien | GP | 1,018 | 2.3 |
| Brendan Sorenson | OTH | 491 | 1.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Markham—Unionville PC, safe seat
- Markham—Thornhill PC, safe seat
- Scarborough North PC, safe seat
- Scarborough—Agincourt OLP, toss-up
- Richmond Hill PC, safe seat
- Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated