Scarborough Centre
Provincial riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Ontario Liberals a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 32%.
Compared with the average
| OLP | PC | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scarborough Centre | 46.8% | 41.0% | 9.7% | 1.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.5%+14.3 | 41.6%−0.7 | 20.3%−10.6 | 3.0%−1.5 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
David Smith · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 1.7 points, with 38.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Ontario Liberals ahead by 5.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Smith Elected | PC | 13,363 | 44.1 |
| Mazhar Shafiq | OLP | 12,839 | 42.3 |
| Sonali Chakraborti | NDP | 2,628 | 8.7 |
| Dean Boulding | GP | 918 | 3.0 |
| Gus Prokos | OTH | 379 | 1.3 |
| Haseeb Qureshi | OTH | 211 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Scarborough Southwest NDP, safe seat
- Scarborough—Agincourt OLP, toss-up
- Don Valley East OLP, safe seat
- Scarborough—Guildwood OLP, safe seat
- Scarborough North PC, safe seat
- Beaches—East York OLP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated