Beaches—East York
Provincial riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Ontario Liberals a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 31.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| OLP | NDP | PC | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beaches—East York | 55.7% | 24.1% | 18.1% | 1.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.5%+23.2 | 20.3%+3.8 | 41.6%−23.6 | 2.6%−1.5 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Mary-Margaret McMahon · OLP
Previous election (2025)
The Ontario Liberals won by 28.2 points, with 50.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the Ontario Liberals ahead by 31.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary-Margaret Mcmahon Elected | OLP | 21,545 | 51.2 |
| Kate Dupuis | NDP | 9,660 | 22.9 |
| Anna Michaelidis | PC | 9,001 | 21.4 |
| Jack Pennings | GP | 1,298 | 3.1 |
| Thomas Gregory | OTH | 246 | 0.6 |
| Paul Stark | OTH | 125 | 0.3 |
| Dragan Cimesa | IND | 122 | 0.3 |
| Bahman Yazdanfar | OTH | 107 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Toronto—Danforth NDP, safe seat
- Don Valley East OLP, safe seat
- Scarborough Southwest NDP, safe seat
- Don Valley West OLP, safe seat
- Scarborough Centre OLP, competitive
- Toronto Centre NDP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated