Don Valley North
Provincial riding · Ontario · City of Toronto
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Ontario Liberals a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| OLP | PC | OTH | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Don Valley North | 48.3% | 34.5% | 10.4% | 6.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 32.5%+15.9 | 41.6%−7.2 | 3.0%+7.4 | 20.3%−14.2 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Jonathan Tsao · OLP
Previous election (2025)
The Ontario Liberals won by 6.2 points, with 38.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the Ontario Liberals ahead by 13.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Tsao Elected | OLP | 13,375 | 43.8 |
| Sue Liu | PC | 11,484 | 37.6 |
| Vincent Ke | IND | 3,005 | 9.8 |
| Ebrahim Astaraki | NDP | 1,562 | 5.1 |
| Andrew Armstrong | GP | 784 | 2.6 |
| Annie Nolan | OTH | 346 | 1.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Willowdale OLP, toss-up
- Scarborough—Agincourt OLP, toss-up
- Don Valley East OLP, safe seat
- Don Valley West OLP, safe seat
- Markham—Thornhill PC, safe seat
- Eglinton—Lawrence OLP, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated