Guelph
Provincial riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Green Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 31.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| GP | PC | OLP | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guelph | 55.0% | 23.5% | 12.7% | 7.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 2.6%+52.4 | 41.6%−18.2 | 32.5%−19.7 | 20.3%−12.9 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Mike Schreiner · GP
Previous election (2025)
The Green Party won by 33.0 points, with 51.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Green Party ahead by 31.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Schreiner Elected | GP | 34,238 | 56.9 |
| Robert Coole | PC | 14,386 | 23.9 |
| Mustafa Zuberi | OLP | 6,874 | 11.4 |
| Cameron Spence | NDP | 3,497 | 5.8 |
| Carina Fraser | OTH | 1,137 | 1.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Wellington—Halton Hills PC, safe seat
- Kitchener South—Hespeler PC, safe seat
- Cambridge PC, safe seat
- Kitchener Centre GP, safe seat
- Waterloo NDP, safe seat
- Kitchener—Conestoga PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated