Waterloo
Provincial riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 24.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | PC | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waterloo | 51.8% | 27.0% | 17.0% | 2.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3%+31.5 | 41.6%−14.7 | 32.5%−15.4 | 3.0%−0.6 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Catherine Fife · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 22.8 points, with 51.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 24.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Catherine Fife Elected | NDP | 25,055 | 50.2 |
| Peter Turkington | PC | 13,670 | 27.4 |
| Clayton Moore | OLP | 7,839 | 15.7 |
| Shefaza Esmail | GP | 1,814 | 3.6 |
| Suja Biber | OTH | 543 | 1.1 |
| Chris Martin | OTH | 477 | 1.0 |
| James Schulz | OTH | 325 | 0.7 |
| Peter House | OTH | 161 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Kitchener—Conestoga PC, safe seat
- Kitchener Centre GP, safe seat
- Kitchener South—Hespeler PC, safe seat
- Cambridge PC, safe seat
- Guelph GP, safe seat
- Perth—Wellington PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated