Kitchener Centre
Provincial riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Green Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 25.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| GP | PC | OLP | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitchener Centre | 49.5% | 23.8% | 15.6% | 8.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 2.6%+46.9 | 41.6%−17.8 | 32.5%−16.9 | 20.3%−11.9 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Aislinn Clancy · GP
Previous election (2025)
The Green Party won by 27.2 points, with 47.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the Green Party ahead by 25.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aislinn Clancy Elected | GP | 21,200 | 51.4 |
| Rob Elliott | PC | 9,991 | 24.2 |
| Colleen James | OLP | 5,892 | 14.3 |
| Brooklin Wallis | NDP | 2,821 | 6.8 |
| Paul Simoes | OTH | 804 | 1.9 |
| Sebastian Butnar-Stoica | OTH | 398 | 1.0 |
| Christopher Nuhn | IND | 144 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Waterloo NDP, safe seat
- Kitchener—Conestoga PC, safe seat
- Kitchener South—Hespeler PC, safe seat
- Cambridge PC, safe seat
- Guelph GP, safe seat
- Wellington—Halton Hills PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated