Kitchener South—Hespeler
Provincial riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitchener South—Hespeler | 44.9% | 27.0% | 19.5% | 6.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+3.3 | 32.5%−5.5 | 20.3%−0.8 | 2.6%+4.3 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Jess Dixon · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 19.7 points, with 44.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 18.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jess Dixon Elected | PC | 17,363 | 45.4 |
| Ismail Mohamed | OLP | 9,830 | 25.7 |
| Jeff Donkersgoed | NDP | 6,841 | 17.9 |
| Jessica Riley | GP | 3,345 | 8.8 |
| John Soule | OTH | 846 | 2.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Kitchener Centre GP, safe seat
- Waterloo NDP, safe seat
- Kitchener—Conestoga PC, safe seat
- Cambridge PC, safe seat
- Guelph GP, safe seat
- Wellington—Halton Hills PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated