Perth—Wellington
Provincial riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perth—Wellington | 47.0% | 29.2% | 14.2% | 5.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+5.3 | 32.5%−3.3 | 20.3%−6.1 | 2.6%+3.1 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Matthew Rae · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 19.5 points, with 52.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 17.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Rae Elected | PC | 21,285 | 47.4 |
| Ashley Fox | OLP | 12,519 | 27.9 |
| Jason Davis | NDP | 5,666 | 12.6 |
| Ian Morton | GP | 3,381 | 7.5 |
| James Montgomery | OTH | 1,354 | 3.0 |
| Sarah Zenuh | OTH | 475 | 1.1 |
| Rob Smink | OTH | 229 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Kitchener—Conestoga PC, safe seat
- Waterloo NDP, safe seat
- Kitchener Centre GP, safe seat
- Kitchener South—Hespeler PC, safe seat
- Cambridge PC, safe seat
- Oxford PC, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated