Niagara Centre
Provincial riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 11%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | PC | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niagara Centre | 43.8% | 36.9% | 16.1% | 2.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3%+23.4 | 41.6%−4.7 | 32.5%−16.4 | 3.0%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Jeff Burch · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 4.8 points, with 48.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 6.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Burch Elected | NDP | 20,408 | 42.2 |
| Bill Steele | PC | 18,073 | 37.4 |
| Damien O'Brien | OLP | 7,143 | 14.8 |
| Natashia Bergen | GP | 1,261 | 2.6 |
| Jimmy Jackson | OTH | 857 | 1.8 |
| Darryl Weinberg | OTH | 513 | 1.1 |
| Angela Browne | OTH | 130 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- St. Catharines NDP, safe seat
- Niagara Falls NDP, safe seat
- Niagara West PC, safe seat
- Hamilton East—Stoney Creek PC, toss-up
- Oakville OLP, toss-up
- Spadina—Fort York NDP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated