St. Catharines
Provincial riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | PC | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Catharines | 43.7% | 34.7% | 18.6% | 2.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3%+23.3 | 41.6%−7.0 | 32.5%−13.8 | 3.0%−0.4 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Jennifer (Jennie) Stevens · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 7.0 points, with 49.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 9.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jennie Stevens Elected | NDP | 19,688 | 42.1 |
| Sal Sorrento | PC | 16,422 | 35.1 |
| Robin Mcpherson | OLP | 8,092 | 17.3 |
| Stephen Vincelette-Smith | GP | 1,033 | 2.2 |
| Rob Atalick | OTH | 807 | 1.7 |
| Natalia Benoit | OTH | 347 | 0.7 |
| Liz Leeuwenburg | OTH | 300 | 0.6 |
| J. Justin O'Donnell | OTH | 56 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Niagara Centre NDP, safe seat
- Niagara Falls NDP, safe seat
- Niagara West PC, safe seat
- Spadina—Fort York NDP, safe seat
- Toronto Centre NDP, toss-up
- Toronto—Danforth NDP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated