Niagara West
Provincial riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 24.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niagara West | 50.7% | 26.1% | 17.9% | 3.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+9.0 | 32.5%−6.4 | 20.3%−2.4 | 3.0%+0.2 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Sam Oosterhoff · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 26.4 points, with 54.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 24.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Oosterhoff Elected | PC | 22,916 | 51.1 |
| Shauna Boyle | OLP | 11,091 | 24.7 |
| Dave Augustyn | NDP | 7,312 | 16.3 |
| Mark Harrison | GP | 1,794 | 4.0 |
| Aaron Albano | OTH | 676 | 1.5 |
| Aaron Allison | OTH | 629 | 1.4 |
| Stefanos Karatopis | OTH | 326 | 0.7 |
| Jim Torma | OTH | 73 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Niagara Centre NDP, safe seat
- St. Catharines NDP, safe seat
- Hamilton East—Stoney Creek PC, toss-up
- Niagara Falls NDP, safe seat
- Hamilton Mountain OLP, toss-up
- Hamilton Centre NDP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated