Niagara Falls
Provincial riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 22.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | PC | OLP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niagara Falls | 56.3% | 34.0% | 7.6% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 20.3%+35.9 | 41.6%−7.7 | 32.5%−24.8 | 3.0%−0.9 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Wayne Gates · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 20.4 points, with 45.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 22.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne J. Gates Elected | NDP | 29,549 | 54.9 |
| Ruth-Ann Nieuwesteeg | PC | 18,569 | 34.5 |
| Shafoli Kapur | OLP | 3,398 | 6.3 |
| Gary Dumelie | OTH | 870 | 1.6 |
| Celia Taylor | GP | 837 | 1.6 |
| Andrew Soifert | OTH | 285 | 0.5 |
| Joedy Burdett | IND | 263 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Niagara Centre NDP, safe seat
- St. Catharines NDP, safe seat
- Niagara West PC, safe seat
- Spadina—Fort York NDP, safe seat
- Toronto Centre NDP, toss-up
- Toronto—Danforth NDP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated